| 摘要: |
| 基于扩展的C-D生产函数模型，利用1984-2014年15个省份的水稻投入产出及气象数据，探讨了生育期气候变化对水稻单产的影响，并系统考察了气候因素对水稻单产的非线性及区域差异性影响程度。结果表明：一方面，水稻生育期降水增加对水稻单产具有负向影响，但其对不同地区的具体影响有所不同。同时，降水变化的二次项对水稻单产具有显著的负向影响。从各区域来看，水稻全生育期降水增加对西南地区水稻单产的边际影响为正，而对东北地区、华东地区、华中地区以及华南地区水稻单产的边际影响为负。另一方面，水稻全生育期内气温升高对水稻单产具有负向影响，且气温变化与水稻单产之间存在明显的"倒U型"关系。从各区域来看，气温升高对华东地区、华中地区、华南地区以及西南地区水稻单产的边际影响为负，而对东北地区水稻单产的边际影响为正。 |
| 关键词: 水稻 气候变化 单产 C-D生产函数 |
| DOI：10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2018.10.22 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目（SWU1709653）；国家自然科学基金国际合作项目（71461010701）；重庆市人文社科重点研究基地（18SKB033）；教育部人文社会科学研究项目（12YJC790036） |
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| Study on the impact of climate change during rice's growing seasons on rice yield in main region: An empirical analysis based on the extended C-D production function |
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YIN Chaojing1,2, LI Gucheng3, FAN Lixia4, GAO Xue3
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1.College of Economics & Management, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China;2.The Research Center of Rural Economic & Management, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China;3.College of Economics & Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China;4.Economics and Management College, Wuhan Polytechnic University, Wuhan 430023, China
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| Abstract: |
| By establishing an extended C-D production function model and using the rice production and meteorological data of China's 15 rice-producing provinces from 1984 to 2014, an empirical analysis of the influence of climate change in rice's growing seasons on rice production was conducted and the nonlinear and regional difference of climate factors' effects was observed. The results showed that increasing precipitation had a significantly negative impact on rice yield. However, the impacts on different regions were different. Meanwhile, quadratic precipitation had a significantly negative impact on rice yield. On the whole, the precipitation had a negative impact on the northeast, eastern, central and southern regions of China, while had a positive impact on the southwest region. Besides, rising temperature had a significantly negative impact on rice yield and there existed a "U" shape relationship between temperature change and rice yield. On the whole, the temperature had a negative impact on the eastern, central, southern and southwest regions of China, while had a positive impact on the northeast region. |
| Key words: rice climate change yield C-D production function |
