|为科学测度区域水资源承载力，探究区域水资源可持续利用，基于系统动力学理论，以内蒙古自治区为例，借助Vensim系统动力学仿真建模平台，从资源环境、社会经济角度构建区域水资源供需系统，并模拟分析2020—2025年现状延续情景、经济发展情景、节约与绿色低碳情景、科技创新情景4种发展情景下的区域水资源供需情况。最后，运用AHP-熵权混合模型评价了4种不同情景下水资源承载力并通过敏感性分析方法识别其主要影响因素。结果表明：1）科技创新情景能有效节约工业用水和生活用水，用水总量为216.93亿m3；节约与绿色低碳情景主要节约农业用水和生活用水，用水总量为217.01 亿m3；现状延续情景用水总量为220.26 亿m3，而经济发展情景对水资源消耗最大，用水总量为225.75 亿m3。2）科技创新情景下的水资源承载力指数最高，是今后内蒙古自治区水资源利用领域的重要发展方向；节约与绿色低碳情景、现状延续情景次之；经济发展情景的承载指数最低，水资源的利用将不可持续。3）发电量、降水量、各类作物种植面积、绿地面积是影响水资源承载力的主要因素，主要原因是非化石能源发电所占比例小，种植业规模广、单位绿地面积耗水量大。因此，能源利用结构调整、种植业节水、水的再处理等技术革新及节约低碳手段是提高内蒙古自治区水资源承载力的有效措施。
|关键词: 水资源承载力 系统动力学模型 情景模拟 影响因素 内蒙古自治区
|Water resources carrying capacity of Inner Mongolia under different scenarios and its influential factors based on a system dynamics model
ZHANG Yumian1, XIA Weiyi2, LUO Yuchuan3*, LU Mengna4, HUANG Linpei5
|(1.Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;2.School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;3.School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China;4.College of Land Science, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China;5.Pittsburgh Institute, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China)
|In order to scientifically measure regional water resources carrying capacity and study sustainable utilization of water resources， Inner Mongolia Region was taken as the case and the modeling platform of Vensim was used to construct a regional water resources supply and demand system based on system dynamics theory. Considering resources， environment and economy， this study simulated four scenarios， namely， the quo scenario， economic development scenario， saving and green low-carbon scenario， technological innovation scenario from 2020 to 2025. AHP and entropy weight combinational method were adopted to predict the water resources carrying capacity index value and identified factors affecting water resource carrying capacity through sensitivity analysis. The results showed that： 1） The technological innovation scenario effectively decreased industrial and domestic water demand with a total water consumption of 21.693 billion m3. The saving and green low-carbon scenario mainly saved agricultural and domestic water with a total water consumption of 21.701 billion m3. The quo scenario had a total water consumption of 22.026 billion m3， while the economic development scenario had the largest water resource consumption with a total water consumption of 22.575 billion m3. 2） The water resource carrying capacity index under technological innovation scenario was the highest， which was an important development direction in the field of water resource utilization in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The saving and green low-carbon scenario as well as quo scenario took next places. The index of the economic development scenario was the lowest and the utilization of water resources was unsustainable. 3） The main factors affecting water resource carrying capacity were power generation， precipitation， planting area of various crops and green planting. The main reasons were the small proportion of non-fossil energy power generation， the wide scale of crop planting industry， the high water consumption per unit area for crop and the high water demand for green planting. Therefore， the optimization of energy utilization structure， water-saving in planting， water reprocessing and other technological innovations as well as low-carbon conservation measures are effective to improve the carrying capacity of water resources in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
|Key words: water resources carrying capacity system dynamics model scenario simulation factors Inner Mongolia Autonomas Region